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For the past several
years, inflation has been under control. The overall rate of inflation,
as measured by the Consumer Price Index has been averaging less than 3%.
However, in the late 1970's and early 1980's, the inflation rate was much
higher and the annual increases in the cost of living were much higher.
For 2008, the rate of inflation was 3.8%.
The Consumer Price
Index is the most common measure of inflation and is determined by adding
up the costs of a typical "basket" of goods and services that
individuals by or use. It includes costs of food, transportation, housing,
entertainment, medical care and many others. The government surveys the
prices of several hundred items in over 200 categories as part of the
calculation.
While the overall
inflation rate has been low for the past decade, there have been certain
segments of the economy where prices have increased steadily and sometimes
dramatically. Medical costs have been rising at a double-digit rate and
college costs have been increasing at a rate about double the overall
rate of inflation.
Why is inflation
important?
You must take inflation into account when planning for future expenses,
particularly for retirement. Maintaining the financial lifestyle you desire
in your retirement years is dependent on how much you have accumulated
by the time you retire and how fast you spend those funds during retirement.
Inflation rates have been low recently, but there are no assurances the
low rates will continue.
Inflation can also
affect your investments. Generally, higher inflation or the expectation
of higher inflation often leads to higher interest rates (lower bond values)
and weaker stock prices. When consumers expect things to cost more in
the future, they often put less "value" on their financial assets
and the prices of those financial assets fall.
What should you
do?
First, pay attention to the long-term rate of inflation. Inflation cycles
tend to be relatively long-term, so if there are a series of monthly inflation
rates above the recent 2% to 3% level, it could be an indicator of worse
things to come.
Second, be sure to
consider inflation in your investment planning, especially with respect
to your fixed income investments. With interest rates at low levels, it
may be advisable to consider shorter or intermediate term bonds (and bond
mutual funds) for the fixed income part of your portfolio, even if you
have to accept a lower current return. That way, if the inflation rate
increases and bond values drop, owning shorter-term bonds will moderate
the drop in bond values.
Third, factor a "realistic"
inflation expectation into your financial planning. It is probably foolish
to expect your cost of living to increase at the recent 2% to 3% level
throughout your retirement years. The inflation rate is probably more
likely to rise over the next several decades than it is to fall. In addition,
some of your costs, such as health care, will increase as you age.
Inflation is one of
the financial facts of life. We cannot control it and we do not know what
it will be in the future. However, you should be mindful of inflation
trends, factor a realistic expectation into your thinking and take steps
to protect your finances just in case the inflation rate rises.
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